GMEOW Risk Module

• IRI: https://blackcatinformatics.ca/gmeow/slices/risk
• Tier: extension
• Group: extensions

What This Slice Covers

This slice owns 38 terms and contributes 0 mapping or projection rows. Use it when its terms match the native fact you want to preserve; use the linkage tables to see how those facts leave GMEOW for consumer vocabularies.

Dependencies

• gmeow:slices/events
• gmeow:slices/kernel

Consumers

• The lbox principia importer (failure_cascades — Trust Collapse and five siblings as named, graded, type-level chains) and threat-model worked examples (D3FEND countermeasures ↔ Mitigation; bowtie barriers ↔ mitigationCounters on CausalLinks). The norms and procedures extensions plug in through Mitigation's deliberately open measure range — no extension→extension dependency exists or may exist (P16 DAG rule).

Local Map

Examples

Trust Collapse

• Source: slices/extensions/risk/examples/trust-collapse.ttl
• GMEOW terms: gmeow:Cascade, gmeow:CausalLink, gmeow:EventType, gmeow:Hazard, gmeow:Mitigation, gmeow:SocialObject, gmeow:cascadeFirstLink, gmeow:cascadeSeverity, gmeow:causalModality, gmeow:causallyNecessitates

# SPDX-FileCopyrightText: 2026 Blackcat Informatics® Inc. <paudley@blackcatinformatics.ca>
# SPDX-License-Identifier: CC-BY-4.0
# Worked example (risk design, the named P15 consumer's flagship case): the
# principia "Trust Collapse" failure cascade as a named, graded, type-level
# chain — betrayal dissolves the bond, bond dissolution kills the will to
# survive. NOTHING HERE OCCURRED: every node is an EventType, and the
# no-occurrence gate keeps it that way. A norm-shaped mitigation (the oath)
# bars the first link's antecedent by open-range reference.

@prefix gmeow: <https://blackcatinformatics.ca/gmeow/> .
@prefix ex:    <https://blackcatinformatics.ca/gmeow/examples/> .
@prefix rdfs:  <http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#> .

# The three feared kinds — types, never instances.
ex:etBetrayal a gmeow:EventType ; rdfs:label "trust betrayal (Shattered Oath)"@en .
ex:etBondDissolution a gmeow:EventType ; rdfs:label "bond dissolution (Severed Thread)"@en .
ex:etWillCollapse a gmeow:EventType ; rdfs:label "loss of the will to survive (Quiet Surrender)"@en .

# Flat 80% claims.
ex:etBetrayal gmeow:typeCauses ex:etBondDissolution .

# Reified where modality and mechanism matter.
ex:linkBetrayalToDissolution a gmeow:CausalLink ;
    gmeow:linkAntecedent ex:etBetrayal ;
    gmeow:linkConsequent ex:etBondDissolution ;
    gmeow:causalModality gmeow:causallyNecessitates ;
    gmeow:linkMechanism "The bond is constituted by the oath; betrayal does not damage it, it unmakes it."@en ;
    gmeow:linkNext ex:linkDissolutionToCollapse .

ex:linkDissolutionToCollapse a gmeow:CausalLink ;
    gmeow:linkAntecedent ex:etBondDissolution ;
    gmeow:linkConsequent ex:etWillCollapse ;
    gmeow:causalModality gmeow:causallyPromotes .

ex:trustCollapse a gmeow:Cascade ;
    rdfs:label "Trust Collapse"@en ;
    gmeow:cascadeFirstLink ex:linkBetrayalToDissolution ;
    gmeow:cascadeSeverity gmeow:severityCatastrophic .

# The hazard at the source, and the norm-shaped barrier on the first link.
ex:duoBond a gmeow:SocialObject ; rdfs:label "the bonded partnership"@en .
ex:betrayalHazard a gmeow:Hazard ;
    rdfs:label "betrayal exposure"@en ;
    gmeow:hazardBearer ex:duoBond ;
    gmeow:manifestedAsType ex:etBetrayal ;
    gmeow:hazardSeverity gmeow:severityCatastrophic .

# Open-range measure: the oath norm plugs in with no
# extension→extension axiom — the IRI is reference, not dependency.
ex:oathMitigation a gmeow:Mitigation ;
    gmeow:mitigationMeasure ex:oathNorm ;
    gmeow:mitigationCounters ex:linkBetrayalToDissolution , ex:betrayalHazard ;
    gmeow:mitigationStatus gmeow:mitigationActive .

Terms

Classes

Properties

Individuals

Guide

risk

Slice: https://blackcatinformatics.ca/gmeow/slices/risk · tier: extension

Hazards, type-level causation, cascades, and mitigations (the risk design) — counterfactual causal structure without counterfactual machinery.

The type-level move

Cascades relate event types, never event instances: nothing in this slice asserts that anything occurred, and the no-occurrence gate makes that executable (the test suite asserts the full fixture set entails zero gmeow:Event instances from this slice's terms). PROV lineage and CRM influence are token-level; OBO RO is the rare type-level causation vocabulary — that asymmetry is why this slice exists.

Shape of the model

• Hazard ⊑ gufo:Disposition (first Disposition use in GMEOW): a bearer's disposition toward harm, manifestedAsType → the feared EventType(s). A hazard that never manifests is fully real.
• Flat type-level links typeCauses / typeEnables / typePrevents / typeMitigates (EventType → EventType, never transitive — chain composition is solver work, P12) → promote to CausalLink (antecedent × consequent × mandatory causalModality [necessitates / promotes / enables / prevents, open] × localizable mechanism prose × solver-input linkStrength). Causal links are claims: standpoint-indexed, confidence-bearing; two analysts' divergent links coexist (P9).
• Cascade ⊑ SocialObject — a named failure narrative ("Trust Collapse"), entered at cascadeFirstLink, walked by linkNext (non-functional → branching failure trees; SHACL-acyclic), graded by the ordered SeverityLevel vocabulary (GranularityLevel pattern, fourth use; ISO 31000 / IEC 60812 anchor terminology only).
• Mitigation binds a measure to a RiskFactor (the named umbrella over CausalLink + Hazard — generator-visible range, relator-arity visible end). The measure range is deliberately open (the tenurePosition precedent, fourth use): a gmeow:Norm or a Procedure plugs in without extension→extension dependency (P16). Whether a mitigation worked is a vantage-indexed claim, never an entailment.

Deferred to the compiler-arc window

OBO RO rows (linkage-only, BFO lineage), MITRE D3FEND (countermeasure ↔ Mitigation), STIX 2.1/ATT&CK, UCO, ConceptNet/ATOMIC; projections to bowtie JSON (near-structural; drops causalModality — declared), FMEA CSV (drops chain order — declared), STIX bundles. Target list fixed in the alignment ledger.

Terms

gmeow:Hazard · gmeow:hazardBearer · gmeow:manifestedAsType · gmeow:hazardSeverity

A bearer's disposition toward harm — the first gufo:Disposition use in GMEOW, and the reason this slice needs no counterfactual machinery: a hazard that never manifests is still fully real. hazardBearer (functional, mandatory) names the one entity it inheres in; manifestedAsType (non-functional, at least one) the feared EventType(s), never an Event — the type level is where counterfactuals live without machinery. hazardSeverity grades a standalone hazard (optional).

gmeow:typeCauses · gmeow:typeEnables · gmeow:typePrevents · gmeow:typeMitigates

Flat type-level causal claims between event kinds — bring about, make possible, block, or reduce. DELIBERATELY NOT TRANSITIVE: chain composition is solver work (P12). Each is statement-layer indexed; typeCauses pairsWith CausalLink, the reified form to promote to when modality, mechanism, or strength rides on the claim.

gmeow:CausalLink · gmeow:linkAntecedent · gmeow:linkConsequent · gmeow:linkMechanism · gmeow:linkStrength

The reified type-level causal claim — antecedent kind × consequent kind × modality, with optional mechanism prose and solver-input strength. linkAntecedent and linkConsequent (both functional, mandatory, and distinct — nothing type-causes itself) carry the kinds; linkMechanism the localizable how-prose; linkStrength a solver-INPUT weight, never an output written back as assertion (P12).

gmeow:CausalModality · gmeow:causalModality

The force of a causal link — an OPEN vocabulary seeded with necessitates, promotes, enables, prevents. Distinct from doxastic standpointModality and ontic hasDeterminacy: causal modality is what the link CLAIMS about the world's mechanics. causalModality is functional and mandatory: if you reified, the modality is your reason.

gmeow:Cascade · gmeow:cascadeFirstLink · gmeow:linkNext · gmeow:cascadeSeverity

A NAMED chain of causal links — a SocialObject failure narrative that exists independent of anything occurring. Entered at cascadeFirstLink (functional, mandatory), walked by linkNext (non-functional → branching failure trees, SHACL-acyclic, not transitive), graded by mandatory cascadeSeverity — an ungraded cascade is just a story.

gmeow:SeverityLevel · gmeow:moreSevereThan

An OPEN, ordered severity vocabulary (catastrophic ≻ severe ≻ moderate ≻ minor; the kernel GranularityLevel pattern, fourth use) anchored terminologically to ISO 31000 / IEC 60812 in docs, never axioms. moreSevereThan is transitive ON LEVELS ONLY — cascades themselves are never ordered transitively.

gmeow:RiskFactor · gmeow:Mitigation · gmeow:mitigationMeasure · gmeow:mitigationCounters

RiskFactor is the named umbrella over CausalLink + Hazard (a generator-visible range, never instantiated directly). Mitigation is a reified countermeasure binding: a measure set against a RiskFactor it counters. mitigationMeasure has an intentionally OPEN range (the tenurePosition precedent) so a gmeow:Norm or a Procedure plugs in without extension→extension coupling (P16); mitigationCounters ranges over RiskFactor (a bowtie barrier or a source control).

gmeow:MitigationStatus · gmeow:mitigationStatus

The lifecycle status of a mitigation — an OPEN vocabulary seeded with proposed, active, retired; retirement is suppression-shaped (kept with its status, never deleted, P10). mitigationStatus is non-functional: status-over-time rides validFrom/validUntil on the statement, single-valuedness per base graph is SHACL's job.